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- 19 Results (2 Threads, 17 Replies)
- serpo replied Jan 7, 2011
You are right. Historical prices are simply the graphical representation of human psychology. This is why I think that not even the most sophisticated computer models can never model or predict human behavior since our mind is much more complex than ...
- serpo replied Jan 5, 2011
One must also take into account the fact that probabilities change as time changes. If you are using 10 years of data for statistics one should have a histogram showing also the time value. E.g. even though there were a 60% for new high when price ...
- Unadaptive trading systems are doomed
I will go straight to the point without any mambo jambo. Imagine a situation where a trader group ...
- serpo replied Jan 3, 2011
Leverage is a deadly weapon, a true double-edged sword. It can make you instantly rich or poor. The latter being reality. There is a saying that leverage kills and this I can totally identify. Averaging down in Forex requires that you do not use ...
- Averaging Down - Is It Really That Bad?
The most quoted saying in the trading world is: "Never add to a losing position" and my favorite: ...
- serpo replied Jan 3, 2010
One of the most popular trading strategies is called DBS which is based on breakout strategies. It is said that with this kind of system one is bound to win and if you don't then you are not following it. Hence a skilled trader ought to be ...
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
Correct! But the the price has to go up 52 pips in order to get your tp filled. Bid: 1.5000 Ask 1.5002 (Buying situation) Bid: 1.5052 Ask 1.5054 (Selling situation) OR Bid: 1.5000 Ask 1.5002 (Buying situation) Bid: 1.4952 Ask 1.4954 (Selling ...
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
lol, educate me master.
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
Ok, when you buy at 1.5002 the actual price is 1.5000 and not 1.5002 so you are already -2 pips down! So it means that the price has to go up 52 pips instead of 50 pips in order to hit the tp. And this is why the probability of winning is smaller ...
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
You get a buy signal at 1.5000, set your tp and sl to be 50 pips, spread is 2 pips. You buy at 1.5002. You are lucky and get your tp hit at 1.5052. The probability of success is not 50% but (50-2)/(50+50)=48%. The probability of failure is ...
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
No it's not. The expectancy is (tp-spread)/(sl+tp)*50-(sl+spread)/(sl+tp)*50=-2. (tp=50 pips and sl=50 pips and spread=2 pips)
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
Where? Prove where.
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
Well... it seems that none of you really get the big picture that spread really kills. When I get home I will post here a small graph showing how a big difference even a small spread can make over the long run. But the simple fact in Forex is that ...
- serpo replied Jan 2, 2010
The REAL reason why 95% of traders fail is the SPREAD. Let me give you all a small example: Imagine you have a tp of 30 pips and a sl of 10 pips and the spread is 2 pips (yeah in your dreams!). Now let's assume that we buy at 1.5000. But in reality ...
- serpo replied Nov 27, 2009
Yeah, interesting I must say! lol When I was testing by hand different magic_shift values I noticed that positive outcome peaks were located around 20, 40, 60 and 95 (just like in your graphs). And one other thing I noticed too that the smaller the ...
- serpo replied Nov 27, 2009
Sorry, I didn't quite understand your message. So if 61 and 62 gives you the best results why do you want to disable the MM-part? To see how it performs without it? P.S. In order the EA to start working properly you need to manually insert the ...
- serpo replied Nov 27, 2009
I don't know if it's just me or then the MT4 optimizer is full of bugs, since I have noticed that it doesn't create reliable results. (for instance, it tested that only 61 around 55-65 was the only profitable outcome for this program, which ain't ...
- serpo replied Nov 27, 2009
Wrong words, I admit.. But still I have never before seen an equity curve performing so smoothly in 11 months test period with over than 100 trades (133 actually). Even though the parameter was optimized, yeah... Any thoughts about the magic shift ...
- serpo replied Nov 26, 2009
Great strategy. No one can't deny it. This is the first time I have ever seen with my own eyes a method that actually works in the long run. Thank you 7-bit. And if someone is having doubts about the results, I've attached the results from my ...
- Posts by Member Search: 'serpo'