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- TracingDelta replied Aug 9, 2019
My first thoughts on it: This gives no insight at all in to directional plays. The data can still be very helpful depending on what your strategy is. Example, collecting swap is similar to collecting premium on an options trade. Assuming direction ...
- TracingDelta replied Jul 9, 2019
1. I chose to use a particular sample size just to demonstrate how there is variance in the data as market conditions change (volatility increase/decreasing, trends being bullish/bearish). 2. Factoring in the location of the close price, looking at ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 29, 2019
image Growth = inflation
- TracingDelta replied Jun 24, 2019
The high/low strike rates give us a good idea of how likely a certain point each week is going to be hit. To further increase our odds of trading in the right direction, we want to try and be in line with fundamental trend. What drives currencies ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 17, 2019
Again, you are not reading anything I am writing. The line is not relevant. What is relevant is how a stochastic process behaves around a line that is fixed or constant... This is clearly way out of your wheel house so go study a course on ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 17, 2019
If you did this, your line would not remain constant. Which is the entire point... You are using flawed logic, my friend.
- TracingDelta replied Jun 17, 2019
I said a line line in the sand that remains constant. Implying it doesn’t move for the period being traded...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 16, 2019
Here is that same data using a smaller sample size for the hit rate calculations. This is done in order to capture the variance of which setups perform better (long or short), which essentially captures the trend of the market. The behavior of how ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 14, 2019
There is no significance to the open line in my example. No lines are magical. The significance is how random walks/random walks with a levy flight behave around any single point that remains constant. Its not about the line, its about how the ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 13, 2019
I know it sounds like some stupid shit to say haha but it’s the truth, and that is the move you want to capture. You know that it will happen 66-70% of the time, and say the distance between the open and the low (going short) is 50 pips and the ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 13, 2019
Haha Yeah that is the thing with probabilities, it doesn’t predict what exactly will happen next, just gives you an idea on what is most likely to happen. Moves like AUDJPY this week will occur anywhere from 25-35% of the time on average, which is ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 13, 2019
Yes, I am not looking to get at the breakout, but instead before. The general idea is this: At the start of each week, depending on the direction of the last week, the high or low has a 65%-80% chance of being reached. In addition, you have an entry ...
- TracingDelta replied Jun 12, 2019
Hey Erebus, I define it based on the direction of the candle (open above close/vice verse) and I usually prefer a nice pull back from the high or low when the candle closes so there is a decent wick. that EURAUD breakout is very clean!
- TracingDelta replied Jun 12, 2019
Hey m3rlin, you could use a percent of last weeks volatility. I just prefer at least 100 pip range or so to reduce transaction cost of the spread and not get caught by quick spikes/white noise.
- TracingDelta replied May 2, 2019
With retail sales rising and PMIs increasing in the eurozone, will likely see GDP start to turn around and rise over the next 12 months. Not sure what this will mean in terms of the day to day trading, but over the long term, euro will likely enter ...
- TracingDelta replied Mar 13, 2019
Expecting a no deal exit by the 29th. Expecting price to whip like crazy until. Trade small because these next couple weeks are going to be a wild ride.
- Posts by Member Search: 'TracingDelta'