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After yesterday’s announcement of the results of the ECB’s strategy review, the just released minutes of the June meeting make us curious about what has happened behind the scenes. According to the minutes, the rift between hawks and doves, last ...
While the ECB may be delighted that the trade-weighted euro is now down 2.5% from its highs at the start of the year, it will be less happy about the reason for that decline. Undoubtedly the soft euro has been driven by a re-assessment of eurozone ...
Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings next week will be in focus, however, don’t expect any changes to asset purchases or interest rates just yet as economies remain under pressure. The US sees the Federal Reserve meeting, which will include ...
UK monthly GDP fell by a sizeable 2.9% in January, though this is clearly quite a bit better than feared. While the national lockdown shuttered a range of industries, the hit to consumer industries was not quite as bad as it could have been. But ...
The European Central Bank surprised with the announcement of frontloaded Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) purchases (see ECB Review), but in terms of the dovish impact on underling eurozone assets, this is more a story for the eurozone ...
Supreme confidence in the global recovery and central banks in no hurry to tap the breaks have combined to deliver a sizable bond market sell-off. The adjustment has erred to the disorderly and prompted some adjustment in positioning – especially in ...
The key take-away from yesterday's commentary is that Chair Powell is prepared to let inflation take off, and is unlikely to take action in the face of that, unless it gets out of control. The problem is we won’t know whether it is in or out of ...
The Fed Chair made it very clear that the US has a very long way to go to meet its full employment goals – meaning in reality a strong jobs report today should not bring pricing of the first Fed hike nearer than the currently-priced 1Q23. Yet any ...
Booming commodity prices have accompanied the market’s recent bets on the global recovery. As shown in Fig 1, almost all major commodities saw a sharp increase in the first two months of 2021, led by the well-sustained recovery in oil prices. ...
Despite the meaningful spike in US Treasury yields, cyclical currencies remain fairly stable and recorded gains vs USD. As long as the rise in UST yields and the curve steepening is driven by ‘’good’’ economic factors and the perception that the ...
What the Riksbank's latest announcement tells us is that the central bank is going to be much more reluctant to follow the ECB towards policy easing at this stage. Despite some energy-related weakness over the next few months, CPIF inflation should ...
Despite recent positive comments from US and China officials, we look for further deterioration in the trade war this year. This is because we expect China to stand firm in its rejection of some US demands (i.e. the issue of intellectual property ...
UK prime minister Boris Johnson has announced that parliament will be prorogued – or suspended – between the weeks of 9 September until 14 October, when the Queen's speech will take place. The big question for markets is: does this decision make a ...
Given the very light data calendar, the coming days should be characterised by the build-up of expectations towards the annual symposium in Jackson Hole starting this Thursday. Although the general discussion (among FOMC members) should be fairly ...
Some positive signals from July retail sales and New York Fed Empire index helped to partly cast out fears of a US recession and stabilise equity markets yesterday. As highlighted by our US economist, we are reluctant to attach a high probability of ...
The week starts without major data releases and with thinner liquidity as some Asian markets are closed for a holiday. Trade tensions are inevitably bound to remain the primary driver of markets sentiment in the days ahead, in particular after ...
Italy is facing another political crisis after the leader of the country's Lega's party, Matteo Salvini, told the prime minister and the Five Star Movement coalition partner that he wants fresh elections and that the government is now technically ...
This week’s move above 7.00 in USD/CNY and widespread monetary easing across Asia has provided further fuel to the President’s criticism that the Fed has kept US interest rates too high and the dollar too strong. The term ‘currency wars’ has also ...
The dollar's been allowed to trade above 7 against the Chinese Yuan for the first time since 2008. ING's Chris Turner looks at the implications.
The British pound started weakening sharply today, with the market awaking to the reality of a new UK government, its rather combative stance on the current EU-UK Brexit deal and its open remarks on the rising probability of a no deal Brexit ...