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Global Economic Outlook: COVID-19 has taken a hold of the global economy
We expect global economic growth to be 1.6% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021 (see table 1). We have sharply adjusted our growth forecast for 2020 to the downside as a result of the outbreak of the recent coronavirus, officially named COVID-19 (see figure 1). We have also calculated a risk scenario in which the virus spreads further (see box 1). Under this scenario, economic growth in China and the global economy will fall to 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively (see also figure 1). China will be hit the hardest. The most negative effects of COVID-19 are being felt in China, the epicentre of the virus. Currently more than 80,000 ... (full story)