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Macro theme: US slowdown and recession risks
The market narrative of a US economy that has bottomed may prove to be premature. Indeed, leading indicators still point to a slowdown and the yield curve has sent its powerful recession signal. In this macro theme, we make the case for a US slowdown in the first half of 2020, prompting the Fed to cut rates. An update of the 'roadmap to recession' theme from March confirms that a trigger is needed for the US to fall into recession and recession probability models show that only financial indicators have sent recession signals, so far. Prepare for slowdown Global manufacturing activity has stabilised in recent months, ... (full story)