Make it or Break It Week for the US Dollar?
The US dollar was little changed for most of last week and then weakened against most of the major currencies ahead of the weekend. The consensus narrative is that comments by the US Administration fanned optimism on a trade agreement with China, and that encouraged a rally in risk assets. We are skeptical, in part because earlier worries failed to entice much of a market reaction. Also, bond yields fell last week, with the 10-year yield on US Treasuries leading the way with an 11 bp decline. The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week except the Australian dollar (~-0.6%), unable to fully recover from ... (full story)