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Results of the Q4 2019 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2019 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.2% for 2019 and 2020 and 1.4% for 2021. These results represent, for the fourth successive round, downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points on average for each of those years compared with the previous survey round. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, refer to 2024) remained at 1.7%. SPF respondents’ expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged 1.1%, 1.0% and 1.4% for 2019, 2020 ... (full story)