US jobs growth slowed in August, but nearly all the subsequent data, including retail sales, industrial and manufacturing output, housing starts, permits, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators were stronger than expected. Core CPI accelerated to an 11-year high of 2.4%. Economic surprise models have exploded, and Citibank's measure reached an 18-month high last week. The FOMC rate cut, statement, forecasts, and the chair's press conference did not alter the expectations of the trajectory of Fed policy for the remainder of the year. The fragmentation of Fed views (dots) notwithstanding, the implied ... (full story)