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On Rising Recession Probabilities
Economists increasingly worry that the next recession is closing in on the U.S. economy. Bloomberg, for example, reports that economists now see a 35% chance of recession in the next twelve months. Such roughly one in three odds of a recession suggests that while the baseline forecast of many economists is one of continued albeit slower growth, they see enough risks to the outlook that they need to hedge their bets against the possibility of more adverse outcomes. I would say that these odds are notably high given that Wall Street economists – permabears excluded – generally hesitate to call a recession for three ... (full story)