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Another robust US job report will temper rate cut expectations
After June’s incredibly strong jobs growth of 224,000, which was above every one of the 75 forecasts in Bloomberg's survey of analysts, there is obviously the risk of a softer outcome for July. We are looking for 170,000, which would be broadly in line with the six-month moving average. This also tallies with evidence from the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book, which based on data up to July 8 reported that “employment grew at a modest pace, slightly slower than the previous reporting period.” Despite last month’s positive surprise, there has been a gradual slowing in the rate of job creation through 2019, ... (full story)