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GDPNow Forecast Dips to 1.3 Percent: One Heck of an Inventory Adjustment
The GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts are in alignment but the details and implications are not the same. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast dipped to 1.3% following the Census Department's Advance Economic Reports. The New York Fed Nowcast model is 1.4% as July 19. Despite the apparent tiny difference between the models, the underlying assumptions may be quite different. Whereas GDPNow breaks out inventory adjustments, Nowcast doesn't. So we cannot say for sure if the models are really in agreement. Real Final Sales GDPNow has "Real Final Sales" at 2.4%. That is the true bottom line GDP estimate as inventories tend to ... (full story)