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NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker: July 2019
The UK economy is on course to contract by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2019. Two quarters of contraction would mean that the economy is in a technical recession, but the initial outlook for the third quarter of 2019 is for growth of 0.2% (figure 1). If correct, that would still imply that the economy has lost significant moment since the first quarter. According to new ONS data published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the three months to May. This outturn was higher than the 0.1 per cent that we forecast last month for the same period due to higher than expected electricity production. ... (full story)