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US Dollar Super Cycle Revisited
In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies. The rally ended with G7 intervention to knock it down in September 1985. After a ten-year bear market, a second dollar rally took place. It can be linked to the tech bubble and the shift to a strong dollar policy. The carving out of the internet drew capital into the US and induced Americans to keep their savings here. It may or may not have been sufficient to fuel ... (full story)