Paul Krugman has been quoted recently as saying that there is some chance of a global recession late this year or next. There is no widely accessible global recession indicator. But there are such indicators for the US, from which, most of the global business cycle usually starts and ends. One readily available indicator, the NY Fed index, has a recession in 12 months probability running at a 23.62%. That sounds a bit elevated, but not quite ringing alarm bells. That said, this index has almost never risen from a lower level to reach this point, without then going on to register higher probabilities and in due course ... (full story)