Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track | Forex Factory

  • Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track

    From reuters.com

    The U.S. economy is on a solid course with some hints of inflation so the Federal Reserve is on track for further interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in a defense of her decision to tighten policy late last year. In a rare spectacle, Yellen spoke on a New York panel alongside her three predecessors who ran the world's most powerful central bank. She said that, seven years after the brutal financial crisis, the U.S. labor market was now "close" to full strength, again arguing that inflation would not be held down much longer by the strong dollar and low oil prices. "The U.S. ... (full story)

Comment Options
Not-KPMG
Apr 9, 2016 1:32pm
Permalink
Quoting Rtm
On top of that, historically there is a seasonality pattern that April is the month where USD drops.
Smart, very smart observation my friend Respect. . . The reason is end of financial year and bringing money back home.
Reply
Davit
Apr 10, 2016 9:31am
Permalink
Quoting Rtm
raising interest rates is what they NEED! Inflation is rising, and if the FED increase rates, this will increase economic growth more! We have been very low rates for a long time now and we have seen earnings go up a lot with companies on buying binges for stocks, even shit stocks going up in value immensely thanks all to this. So when the FED will raise you will get a correction in stocks as is NEEDED but the large companies will in theory and most likely go back to investing in their own companies. Which is good! Good for the economy, go for the...
I respectfully disagree
Corporate earnings are very low now close to 2008 crash.
There is no inflation to speak about.
Rates go up companies cut spending ,expansion and hiring/cutting jobs becomes the norm.
US economy is very fragile.Much of the "good news" is basically spin on numbers.
I suggest look up how many jobs that pay well like in manufacturing we lost vs how many jobs that pay poorly we created on service sector.
Which of those pay your mortgage.Exactly working 9 dollars an hour at Walmart is not going uplift anyone from poverty.
Real unemployment now is close to 15% not 5% and signs are already looking gloomy like 1st Q growth projected to be nothing.
Feds have their own agenda election year and liberal Yellen at the wheel.We are not going to get straight answers until we see someone with more honesty at the Feds.
regards
Reply
Rtm
Apr 9, 2016 9:11am
Permalink
Quoting Luis Carlos
If I were Yellen I will not raise interest rates until the ECB do it first, but would be devastating to the global economy
raising interest rates is what they NEED! Inflation is rising, and if the FED increase rates, this will increase economic growth more! We have been very low rates for a long time now and we have seen earnings go up a lot with companies on buying binges for stocks, even shit stocks going up in value immensely thanks all to this. So when the FED will raise you will get a correction in stocks as is NEEDED but the large companies will in theory and most likely go back to investing in their own companies. Which is good! Good for the economy, go for the country. The US stocks have been the best bang for your buck and is what has helped inflation increase. I dunno, FED need to get hike over with already. ECB still a ways to go yet before it can even consider a rate hike.
Reply
Rtm
Apr 9, 2016 11:34am
Permalink
Quoting Fader123
The reason the dollar is so weak against the Yen is three fold. Two weeks ago Yellen comes out with a very dovish speech. Then last week the S&P drops- which leads to safe haven flows. Also Kuroda speech this week was less dovish than usual.

That is a lot more hawkish than the speech two weeks ago.

Have just read most economists expect rate increase in June.

Buying UJ on Monday. It looks at a support level
On top of that, historically there is a seasonality pattern that April is the month where USD drops.
Reply
Rtm
Apr 9, 2016 11:37am
Permalink
Quoting Hurst
Just as winter clears the world of the excess of summer and gives the world new life in spring so it is important for the markets to clear out the excess, the poor performing companies that are just afloat on the pile of money that are swimming about in the markets.

Sadly all the people that are looking to there pension funds are about to see them cut into half in the not too distant future. This situation could have been avoided. A simple knowledge of cycles would have allowed the raising of rates at a time when the market was in its up phase....
I really don't think its going to be that bad. Pension funds are meant to produce over the long term in a low risk growth. Therefore, you have to look at the 10 year picture. Yes there will be corrections in the equity but to say most of it will be erased is untrue. I think you reading too much zerohedge.
Reply
Rtm
Apr 9, 2016 4:38pm
Permalink
Quoting Hurst
A couple of people were laughing at me when I posted my call the SP500 would be back to their old highs. Time will tell
That is just poor taste-on the ones who think it was somehow funny. With the current back drop you have to be a fool not to think SP500 will rally easily. I agree with you that the equity indexes will likely underperform for the next while even possibly the start of a bear trend.
Reply
Rtm
Apr 9, 2016 4:40pm
Permalink
Quoting Not-KPMG
Smart, very smart observation my friend Respect. . . The reason is end of financial year and bringing money back home.
You said it! Only makes sense, as we are traders, we follow the patterns.
Reply
OctaveJay509
Apr 10, 2016 2:46am
Permalink
Perception and Expectation are two great concepts in the world of Finance, and when you reach a certain level of knowledge, you tend to reduce the noise around the market and appreciate the Bigger Picture...

Then, the Market becomes a person (hypothetically speaking) with different personalities...I think it is very wise to listen and respond accordingly....It doesn't make you any smarter by finishing up someone else's sentences, but the market does respect Patterns and Market Cycles...

Janet Yellen and the rest of the Major Central Gangsters(Bankers) have no ideas about the outcomes of their decisions, but they expect to create countless realities/reactions that make sense to us over time, but it's going to take time for all of us to be in the same page...

There's nothing wrong about being a speculator, but you know what? Bulls make money, Bears make money, but the pigs get slaughtered....
Reply
Rtm
Apr 10, 2016 1:17pm
Permalink
Quoting Davit
I respectfully disagree
Corporate earnings are very low now close to 2008 crash.
There is no inflation to speak about.
Rates go up companies cut spending ,expansion and hiring/cutting jobs becomes the norm.
US economy is very fragile.Much of the "good news" is basically spin on numbers.
I suggest look up how many jobs that pay well like in manufacturing we lost vs how many jobs that pay poorly we created on service sector.
Which of those pay your mortgage.Exactly working 9 dollars an hour at Walmart is not going uplift anyone from poverty.
Real...
I meant EPS has gone up.
Reply
Stubborn
Apr 8, 2016 9:10am
Permalink
Quoting fxtradespot
They just throw dust in our eyes.

The economy can't withstand another rite hike. There will be no rate hikes in 2016.
I agree with you.
Any rate hikes in the next few months may have devastating effects on the US economy.
Reply
Fader123
Apr 9, 2016 11:07am
Permalink
The reason the dollar is so weak against the Yen is three fold. Two weeks ago Yellen comes out with a very dovish speech. Then last week the S&P drops- which leads to safe haven flows. Also Kuroda speech this week was less dovish than usual.

That is a lot more hawkish than the speech two weeks ago.

Have just read most economists expect rate increase in June.

Buying UJ on Monday. It looks at a support level
Reply
DemoAntares
Apr 8, 2016 8:36am
Permalink
Yen is getting hammered.
So technically they should use a temporary rate hike (a small one) in order to keep yen under check. There is nothing Japan can do since they're at full employment - they are unable to ease at any rate.
The only question is will it be wrapped as a "we will buy more assets (print some little more money) while raising interest rates to 0.050000001"
- the main goal is to keep dollar under 100 while at the same time keeping the stock market above 2014 rally point
- it's all about the elections and banksters trying to keep the 7 trillion of debt imposed on us citizens (and combined, to the rest of the world)
- all in all - 2015 and 2016 will be the years where banks made the most money - sideways market.
Reply
DemoAntares
Apr 8, 2016 8:45am
Permalink
Quoting fxtradespot
They just throw dust in our eyes.

The economy can't withstand another rite hike. There will be no rate hikes in 2016.
Either that or Kuroda doing harakiri - along with the rest of the deflated nation. I gues it's easier if ypy gets hammered all the way than US banks losing some of their hard earned money
Reply
DemoAntares
Apr 8, 2016 9:30am
Permalink
Quoting Hurst
Yes but what of the effect of this on the market, the market is now assuming no rate hike ever, so it will tumble like a bag of sausages if they so much as raise rates
Not if they raise rates by a measly 0.01 while at the same time invent some "asset purchase program over long long term" - they need to be pissing up the wind otherwise spx goes back to 1740. Needs to stay sideways. More money from stop hunts.
I bet in all these weekly 15 points green candles - big bois are selling to the not so big bois. As they are doing it for the last year+
Reply
Bakker
Apr 10, 2016 10:45am
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Any further rate rises will kill the economy. Why are the business leaders in the US always reluctant to comment on something significant like interest rates? Or do i miss it in someway.
Reply
Hurst
Apr 9, 2016 6:01am
Permalink
From my forecast for 2016 I can say that the turn I was expecting in the first week of April for the 6th came in 1 1/2 days early on the 4th April midday. My expectation now is for this decline to continue, here is my forecast as it has played out.

http://screencast.com/t/jPFyNUkb
Reply
Hurst
Apr 9, 2016 9:22am
Permalink
Just as winter clears the world of the excess of summer and gives the world new life in spring so it is important for the markets to clear out the excess, the poor performing companies that are just afloat on the pile of money that are swimming about in the markets.

Sadly all the people that are looking to there pension funds are about to see them cut into half in the not too distant future. This situation could have been avoided. A simple knowledge of cycles would have allowed the raising of rates at a time when the market was in its up phase. Although this would have caused a decline, as the tendency was up the market would have recovered. Now they are raising rates at a time when the markets are in their topping phase. The natural cycle of the market will be to decline even on good news. To introduce higher rates at a time when the market is already set for a decline will lead to one of the worst falls in history. It is like telling a depressed person, its all black buddy, might as well end it now.
Reply
Hurst
Apr 9, 2016 3:37pm
Permalink
Quoting Rtm
I really don't think its going to be that bad. Pension funds are meant to produce over the long term in a low risk growth. Therefore, you have to look at the 10 year picture. Yes there will be corrections in the equity but to say most of it will be erased is untrue. I think you reading too much zerohedge.


A couple of people were laughing at me when I posted my call the SP500 would be back to their old highs. Time will tell
Reply
Luis Carlos
Apr 10, 2016 2:14am
Permalink
Quoting Rtm
raising interest rates is what they NEED! Inflation is rising, and if the FED increase rates, this will increase economic growth more! We have been very low rates for a long time now and we have seen earnings go up a lot with companies on buying binges for stocks, even shit stocks going up in value immensely thanks all to this. So when the FED will raise you will get a correction in stocks as is NEEDED but the large companies will in theory and most likely go back to investing in their own companies. Which is good! Good for the economy, go for the...
Of course USA must raise interest rates because USA is fine, but for global concern NO! If EUROPE goes down also everyone.
Reply
Mrpipstar
Apr 8, 2016 8:35am
Permalink
There goes granny again ''Gradual'' rate increase is the word here
Reply
fxtradespot
Apr 8, 2016 8:43am
Permalink
They just throw dust in our eyes.

The economy can't withstand another rite hike. There will be no rate hikes in 2016.
Reply
Hurst
Apr 8, 2016 9:28am
Permalink
Yes but what of the effect of this on the market, the market is now assuming no rate hike ever, so it will tumble like a bag of sausages if they so much as raise rates
Reply
Luis Carlos
Apr 9, 2016 7:52am
Permalink
If I were Yellen I will not raise interest rates until the ECB do it first, but would be devastating to the global economy
Reply
Trader#22EA
Apr 8, 2016 9:46am
Permalink
listen up guys and gals. as a full time trader since mid 2008, I can vouch that what is happening now on the markets is a big freakin' joke. it's all rigged, believe me.
Reply
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