Why Do Forecasters Keep Forecasting?
From bloomberg.com
"He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass." -- Edgar Fiedler Its that time of year again! All of your favorite prognosticators will soon be trotting out their favorite (albeit worthless) prognostications. You are advised to ignore them with extreme prejudice. This has been a peeve of mine for quite some time, going back to "The Folly of Forecasting" and, more recently, "Get ahead of forecaster folly." I was reminded of this courtesy of a commentary by Robert Seawright, chief investment officer of Madison Avenue Securities. It had the delightful tongue-in-cheek title, "Missed It By *This* ...
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