Thank you for the invitation to speak at tonight's dinner. This is the second time that I have participated in the ABE's annual forecasting conference and it is a pleasure to be here once again. The title of my remarks this evening is in the form of a question. And that question is, ‘What is Normal?’ The Oxford Dictionary defines the word ‘normal’ as ‘conforming to a standard; usual, typical or expected’.[1] The question of ‘what is normal’ therefore seems an appropriate one for an annual forecasting conference. For many of us, our days are spent looking at economic and financial developments and asking whether they ... (full story)