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No hikes?
It came as little surprise that the Bank of England’s MPC voted 7–2 to hold rates steady at 3.75%, particularly in the wake of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran and the resulting plunge in oil prices. The UK’s inflation outlook, and by extension its monetary policy debate, remains outsourced to events in the Middle East (figure 1). The sharp retracement in energy prices, with Brent now actually flat on a year‑on‑year basis(!), has materially weakened the case for a near-term rate hike. The MPC rightly highlighted that risks to the energy price outlook remain skewed to the upside. The ... (full story)
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From cnbc.com | Jun 18, 2026
The Bank of England held U.K. interest rates at 3.75% on Thursday, as policymakers continue to balance the need to address above-target inflation with lackluster economic output. The hold, which was in-line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, was backed by seven of the nine monetary policy committee members in the BOE’s May meeting. BoE ...
SPREADS WIDENING ACROSS THE BOARD, POTENTIAL RATE CHECK FROM JAPANESE AUTHORITIES Suspected JPY intervention
From think.ing.com | Jun 18, 2026
On the face of it, the latest UK jobs report doesn’t look so bad. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%. Payrolled employment rose after three consecutive monthly declines (it increased by a marginal 2,000 workers). Average weekly earnings growth was higher than expected. But the details still look dovish for the Bank of England. And the report is ...
