We Have a Deal with Iran…MAYBE? I’ve said this over and over again in recent weeks, but there was never a high probability this thing could last that long. The narrative was just too damaging. With mortgage rates at 6.5% and gasoline over $4 you couldn’t sustain a situation where the US continued to allow oil prices to remain this high. Especially not in a mid-term election year. The question now is, did this last long enough to make a meaningful difference on the economy? The good news here is that it doesn’t look like there has been meaningful damage in the labor market. We track the real-time FICA data pretty ... (full story)