-
Dot Plot revision can support USD
The dollar’s slip yesterday appeared more a symptom of position squaring ahead of today’s FOMC risk event rather than a signal of further optimism on geopolitics. It has been a rare case of dislocation between oil prices and the dollar since the Iran conflict started, perhaps hinting that markets are – at least for this week – shifting their focus to the central bank reactions, also considering few signs of an imminent de-escalation. We preview today’s FOMC meeting here. The Fed will keep rates on hold, but the risks are clearly of a hawkish revision in the Dot Plot projections, with the median currently ... (full story)
- Comments / Top
- Subscribe
-
Related Stories
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 17–18, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot” revised up to 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/5qflQVsz6A FED PROJECTIONS SHOW SEVEN POLICYMAKERS SAW NO RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE SEES RATES HIGHER IN 2027 FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT END OF 2026 VERSUS 4.4% IN DECEMBER PROJECTIONS
Jerome Powell didn’t feed the doves at today’s presser even though the FOMC projections issued at 2PM ET didn’t seem all too hawkish. While the Fed is looking for higher levels of inflation than they were at the last quarterly rate decision in December, they also boosted forecasts for growth this year while maintaining the expectation for the unemployment ...
A senior Israeli official: The Israeli Air Force struck the largest natural gas processing facility in Iran, located in the southwest of the country. The strike was carried out in coordination with and with the approval of the U.S.
