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Macro & Markets forecast edition: Rate cuts are done, bonds and USD will suffer
We think Fed is done cutting for now. We see a balanced risk to this level of interest rates. We could see an even more biased Fed, cutting for no good reason, but we could also see inflation picking up again without high unemployment forcing Fed to hike interest rates. Fed has done two risk management rate cuts fearing labour markets could turn out too weak. Fed also went a long way dismissing inflation risk at their last meeting. We recognize that there is weakness in the labour market, but most of the increase in unemployment comes from the age group between 20 and 24 years. This could be related to actual ... (full story)
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From @FirstSquawk|Dec 12, 2025|11 commentsTRUMP SAYS LEANING TOWARD WARSH OR HASSETT TO LEAD THE FED: WSJ Trump said he thought the next Fed chair should consult with him on rates. “Typically, that’s not done anymore. It used to be done routinely. It should be done,” Trump said. “It doesn’t mean—I don’t think he should do exactly what we say. But certainly we’re—I’m a smart voice… TRUMP SAID OF WARSH “HE THINKS YOU HAVE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES” - WSJ ASKED WHERE HE WANTS INTEREST RATES TO BE A YEAR FROM NOW, TRUMP SAID, “1% AND MAYBE LOWER THAN THAT"- WSJ
From vtmarkets.com|Dec 12, 2025The highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting in December delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, fully in line with expectations. Yet, as is often the case, the real signal came ...
From kitco.com|Dec 12, 2025Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said Friday that given her own take on the economy she would prefer monetary policy to be tighter than it is currently. ...
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From @financialjuice|Dec 12, 2025Fed's Daly: I backed the vote to cut rates at the FOMC meeting this week. Fed's Daly: Risks remain to employment and from inflation.
From dunham.com|Dec 12, 2025Even With Cuts, The Fed Is Braking into a Slowdown: R-Star, Output Gaps, and a Return of QE Real interest rates are sitting above the economy’s natural pace just as growth slips ...
From msn.com|Dec 12, 2025|3 commentsFederal Reserve officials — including two who will become voters in 2026 — offered strongly opposing views Friday on what to do with interest rates, continuing a debate that will ...
