In the first half of 2025, the US dollar saw its steepest decline in over five decades. The DXY index—which tracks the dollar against major trading partners—fell about 11% from January to June, marking the end of a decade-long rally that began in 2010 and had delivered nearly 40% cumulative gains. Since mid-year, the dollar has traded sideways as investors reassess the sustainability of the forces, particularly fiscal and external imbalances, that once underpinned its strength. In our view, the US dollar remains overvalued, and its underlying fundamentals are beginning to weaken. Out of the 33 currencies we track in ... (full story)