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ECB economic, financial and monetary developments
At its meeting on 11 September 2025, the Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged. The September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June. They see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. For inflation excluding energy and food, they expect an average of 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The economy is projected ... (full story)
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Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 2.9% in August 2025 from 3.3% in July (revised from 3.4%) Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 5.0% in August, unchanged from previous month Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 2.5% in ...
The Bank had been conducting money market operations in accordance with the guideline for money market operations decided at the previous meeting on June 16 and 17, 2025.5 The uncollateralized overnight call rate had been in the range of 0.476 to 0.479 percent. Meanwhile, in June 2025, the Bank conducted Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases of about 4.1 trillion yen per month. In July 2025, it cut down the monthly purchase amount by about 400 billion yen, to about 3.7 trillion yen per month; this was in accordance with the JGB reduction plan decided at the June 2025 meeting. In the money market, the uncollateralized overnight call rate had been at around 0.5 percent. The general collateral (GC) repo rate had been at around the same level as the uncollateralized overnight call rate. As for interest rates on term instruments, yields on threemonth treasury discount bills (T-Bills) were more or less unchanged. The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), while generally moving in line with U.S. stock prices, had risen, reflecting that tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States had resulted in an agreement. Yields on 10-year JGBs had been more or less flat; however, they had recently risen, reflecting tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States resulting in an agreement, and partly due to speculation over policy interest rate hikes by the Bank and over future fiscal policy. The liquidity indicators in the JGB markets continued to improve on the whole. In the foreign exchange market, the yen had temporarily appreciated against the U.S. dollar, as market expectations for policy interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve had increased; however, it had depreciated over the intermeeting period, amid BOJ Minutes: One Member Says More Data Needed Before Policy Decisions, As US Monetary Policy And FX Direction Could Shift Rapidly Based On US Inflation And Jobs Data BOJ minutes: One member suggests adjusting policy rate toward neutral level amid strengthening inflation and closing output gap BOJ MINUTES: ONE MEMBER SAYS HIKING RATES AT APPROPRIATE TIMING IS IMPORTANT FROM RISK MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE ... BOJ minutes: One member sees rate hike possible this year if US economy resilient, Japan impact limited
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent (revised). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in ...