Japan inflation slows to 2.2% in April

Thank you for the invitation to be here and speak to you today.1 I want to step away from shorter-term questions about the economic outlook and monetary policy to delve into a subject of longer-term significance—r*. While there are many concepts of r*, I interpret it to be the real policy interest rate that is neither stimulating nor restricting economic activity with inflation anchored at the central bank's inflation target. In the short term, policymakers must judge whether a given policy setting is restrictive or otherwise, and while this judgment is made with some idea of r*, a number of factors can influence the economy in the near term so that the current setting of policy usually differs from the value of r*. At the same time, policymakers continually update their view of the appropriate value of r*. Recently, for example, discussions have focused on whether or not r* has risen, which has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy. For the purposes of this discussion, I am going to be talking about the long-run, real value of r*, when inflation and employment have reached the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) goals. Because of that, an estimate of r* points toward where monetary policy is headed over the longer run. This is important for policymakers deciding the best way to get there and also for investors and other members of the public who make decisions in the near term based on their expectations of future economic conditions. Much has been written on this topic, and different methods have been developed to estimate r*. My goal today is not to debate which statistical estimate of r* is best but rather describe what I believe are the economic factors behind the secul post: <=USD>:*WALLER: ONLY TIME WILL TELL HOW IMPORTANT FISCAL WILL BE FOR R* *WALLER: FINANCING PRESSURES MAY PUSH R* HIGHER IN COMING YEARS *WALLER: HELPFUL TO LOOK AT REAL 10Y YIELD FOR MARKET VIEW ON R* *WALLER: FACTORS THAT LOWERED NEUTRAL RATE MAY REVERSE IN FUTURE

post: ECB'S NAGEL: THE ECB CAN PROBABLY CUT RATES IN JUNE. post: ECB'S NAGEL: AFTER JUNE, WE PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ON THE NEXT MOVE UNTIL SEPTEMBER. post: ECB'S NAGEL: THERE NO AUTOPILOT ON RATE CUTS. post: ECB'S NAGEL: THE WAGE UPTICK WASN'T A SURPRISE. post: ECB'S NAGEL: CORE AND HEADLINE INFLATION ARE BOTH DECELERATING.