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Currencies And Inflation
Currency trading is somewhat unusual in that the price reflects what is happening in two different currency zones. If we want to discuss how currencies relate to inflation, we should keep in mind that we should be talking about the inflation rate in the two currencies. For example, if the inflation rate in Canada is 2% and the inflation rate in the United States is also 2%, the effect of inflation on the Canada-U.S. exchange rate should cancel out. For developed countries (with floating exchange rates), currency values largely reflect what is happening with capital flows, and to a lesser extent, trade flows. The ... (full story)
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Available as: PDF Good afternoon. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss our recent policy announcement and the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report. In April, we maintained our policy interest rate at 5% and published a revised outlook for the Canadian economy. We had three key messages. First, monetary policy is working. Total consumer price index (CPI) and core inflation have eased further in recent months, and we expect inflation to continue to move closer to the 2% target this year. Second, growth in the economy looks to be picking up. We expect GDP growth to be solid this year and to strengthen further in 2025. Third, as we consider how much longer to hold the policy rate at the current level, we’re looking for evidence that the recent further easing in underlying inflation will be sustained. Before taking your questions, let me take a moment to discuss recent economic data and the outlook for growth and inflation. In Canada, growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply. The labour market also cooled from very overheated levels. With employment growing more slowly than the working-age population, the unemployment rate has risen gradually over the last year to 6.1% in March. There are also some signs that wage pressures are beginning to ease. Economic growth is forecast to strengthen in 2024. Strong population growth is increasing consumer demand as well as the supply of workers, and spending by households is forecast to recover through the year. Spending by governments also contributes to growth, and US strength supports Canadian exports. Overall, we forecast GDP growth in Canada of 1.5% this year and about 2% in 2025 and 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026. CPI inflation was 2.9% in March, and price increases are now slowing across most major categories. However, shelter cost inflation is still very high and remains the biggest contribution to overall inflation. Looking ahead, we expect core inflation to cont post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING. post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY LOOKS TO BE PICKING UP. post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO BEING ABLE TO CUT RATES.
post: USD/JPY slammed lower https://t.co/5Z6qJTXa4k USDJPY falls below 100 hour MA and runs lower The USDJPY broke below the 100-day moving average and scooted all the way down to the 200-hour moving average at 155.98. The price moved below that moving average on its way to a low price of 155.793 before bouncing back to the upside. Recall from Monday's trade after the intervention, the price also moved below its 200 hour MA on 4 separate hourly bars, only to fail on each of the separate hourly bar breaks. Can the price NOW stay below that moving average and probe lower? That is the question for traders. The 50% midpoint of the April trading range is now the next target at 155.50. Move below that level opens the door for more downside momentum as more liquidation can be anticipated. post: USDJPY < 155, down 250 pips in this latest intervention
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found room to breathe as the US Dollar (USD) eases following the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping close to the script in regards to the rate outlook. Canada ...
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The yen advanced more than 2% against the dollar late in the New York session, fueling speculation that the Japanese authorities could be intervening to support the currency. The ...
post: JAPAN'S TOP CURRENCY DIPLOMAT KANDA HAS NO COMMENT ON WHETHER JAPAN INTERVENED IN THE CURRENCY MARKET.
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and argued its policy stance is “in a good place”, but officials are concerned about the recent lack of progress on inflation. ...
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- Posted: May 1, 2024 4:32pm
- Submitted by:Category: Educational NewsComments: 0 / Views: 7,125