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Global Growth Returns and the 2025 Fiscal Reckoning
They say that no one rings the bell at market tops and bottoms, but some important bells are ringing. Most importantly, gold prices are hitting all-time highs despite outflows from U.S. gold bullion ETFs. Gold prices aren’t just rallying in a small way. They are reaching, bitcoin-like, for the sky. At the end of 2023, we suggested that the three major macro factors—monetary policy, government spending and global economic growth—would not change much in 2024 (see 2024 Macro Predictions: Sideways 2.0). Now, gold is signaling that government spending policy could be wildly stimulative, and commodities are ... (full story)