The February reading of the ISM manufacturing index has unexpectedly risen above the break-even 50 level – the first time it has happened since September 2022. By moving into expansion territory the survey offers hope that the manufacturing sector is finally stabilising after nearly 18 months of contraction and follows on from an upside surprise in Chinese manufacturing PMIs over the weekend. This may well be the key reason why the ISM performed so well since, as the chart below shows, the regional surveys we got beforehand fell. However, there are no regional surveys covering the US west of the Rocky mountains and ... (full story)