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The return of US manufacturing growth lifts optimism
The February reading of the ISM manufacturing index has unexpectedly risen above the break-even 50 level – the first time it has happened since September 2022. By moving into expansion territory the survey offers hope that the manufacturing sector is finally stabilising after nearly 18 months of contraction and follows on from an upside surprise in Chinese manufacturing PMIs over the weekend. This may well be the key reason why the ISM performed so well since, as the chart below shows, the regional surveys we got beforehand fell. However, there are no regional surveys covering the US west of the Rocky mountains and ... (full story)
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Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months. Overview • Firms reported that demand remains weak overall. But there are some signs of returning optimism. Namely, indicators of business conditions, sales outlooks and employment intentions have changed direction after many quarters of decline. In the wake of weak past sales growth, expectations for improved sales are supported by population growth, efforts to enter new markets or develop new products, and expectations that interest rates will decline over the next 12 months.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations - First Quarter of 2024 Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but their expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Consumers link their perceptions of slowing inflation with their own experiences of price changes for frequently purchased items, such as food and gas. • Expectations for long-term inflation have increased, though they remain below their historical average. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think that factors contributing to high inflation—particularly high government spending and elevated home prices and rent costs—will take longer to resolve. • Canadians continue to feel the negative impacts of high inflation and high interest rates on their budgets, and nearly two-thirds are cutting or postponing spending in response. Although weak, consumer sentiment improved this quarter, with people expecting lower interest rates. As a result, consumers are less pessimistic about the future of the economy and their financial situation, and fewer think they will need to further cut or postpone spending. post: BOC SURVEY: 40% OF FIRMS EXPECT INFLATION TO REMAIN ABOVE 3% FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS, DOWN FROM 54% IN Q4. post: BOC SURVEY: 27% OF FIRMS EXPECT CANADA TO BE IN A RECESSION OVER THE NEXT YEAR, DOWN FROM 38% IN Q4. post: BOC SURVEY: OVERALL Q1 BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATOR -2.42, Q4 WAS -3.09 (REVISED FROM -3.15).
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- Posted: Apr 1, 2024 12:14pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,654
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