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New Zealand Dollar: Rate Hike Loathing
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand could send ripples through financial markets if it raises interest rates next week, says Rabobank. The New Zealand Dollar faces a pick-up in month-end volatility as global markets prepare for a potential shock interest rate hike at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on February 28. "Despite the economy being in a technical recession, a week ago the local market was already making calls that the RBNZ might hike twice this year from the current level of 5.5%," says Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank. "A shock rate hike would send ripples right the way round the rest of ... (full story)
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- From bankofengland.co.uk|Feb 21, 2024|1 comment
At the February meeting of the MPC, I voted to cut Bank Rate by 25bps. In this note, I discuss the reasoning behind my vote to start normalising Bank Rate. I first note that monetary policy needs to be forward-looking because moderation of the policy stance requires time to implement and to feed through to the real economy. I then discuss trends and developments in the economy that suggest the outlook for headline inflation is bumpy but downwards. Consumer price inflation is on a firm downward path, and has been for some time now. Producer price inflation, which tends to lead consumer price inflation, suggests there is more to come, including in non-energy services. I finally argue there are downside risks to living standards from keeping policy tight. Despite an easing in inflation and some real wage recovery, consumption remains below its pre-pandemic level. This is in striking contrast to the Euro area and the United States where consumption bounced back some time ago. The evidence to err on the side of overtightening is not compelling in my view as it often comes with hard landings and scarring of supply capacity that would weigh further on living standards. post:
BOE'S DHINGRA: MONETARY POLICY NEEDS TO BE FORWARD-LOOKING BECAUSE MODERATION OF THE POLICY STANCE REQUIRES TIME TO IMPLEMENT AND TO FEED THROUGH TO THE REAL ECONOMY. post:
BOE'S DHINGRA: EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF OVER TIGHTENING IS NOT COMPELLING AS IT OFTEN COMES WITH HARD LANDINGS AND SCARRING OF SUPPLY CAPACITY. post:
BOE'S DHINGRA: WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE COMING TO A FINELY-TUNED ESTIMATE OF THE MEDIUM-TERM RESTING PLACE FOR BANK RATE. post: MORE BOE'S DHINGRA: REMAINING CHALLENGE OF MEETING THE LAST MILE OF INFLATION TARGET MAY REQURE A DIFFERENT STRATEGY THAN IN PREVIOUS ERAS #bankofengland #ukeconomy #swatidhingra #interestrates #inflation #monetarypolicy
- From @financialjuice|Feb 21, 2024|3 comments
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FED'S BARKIN: PRODUCTIVITY METRICS ARE POOR AND THESE NEED TO BE VIEWED OVER LONGER TIME PERIODS. post:
FED'S BARKIN: IT IS TO SOON TO SAY THERE HAS BEEN A SEA CHANGE IN PRODUCTIVITY, BUT FIRMS ARE INVESTING IN WAYS TO SAVE LABOR. post:
FED'S BARKIN: WEAKER GROWTH OVERSEAS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON A US RECOVERY DRIVEN BY DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION. post: BARKIN: THE U.S. STILL HAS A "WAYS TO GO" TO GET TO A SOFT LANDING post:
FED'S BARKIN: THE US IS ON THE BACK END OF ITS INFLATION PROBLEM; THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW MUCH LONGER IT WILL TAKE.
- From statcan.gc.ca|Feb 21, 2024
The national index edged down 0.1% month over month in January. Prices were down or unchanged in 21 of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed. The largest ...
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- From @financialjuice|Feb 21, 2024
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FED'S BARKIN: THE WORRY ONCE GOODS DEFLATION ENDS, IS THAT SERVICES IS STILL TOO HIGH. post:
FED'S BARKIN: EXPECTATIONS OF CONSUMERS AND FIRMS NEED TO CONVERGE TO 2%. post: Fed’s Barkin: Looking At Monthly, 3-Month. Inflation Data, Not 12-Month
- From @MaceNewsMacro|Feb 21, 2024
post: MORE BOE'S DHINGRA: WAITING TO EASE POLICY 'IS NOT COSTLESS' #bankofengland #ukeconomy #swatidhingra #interestrates #inflation #monetarypolicy
- From economy-finance.ec.europa.eu|Feb 21, 2024
In February 2024, DG ECFIN’s flash estimate1 of the consumer confidence indicator picked up, by 0.4 percentage points (pps.) in the EU and 0.6 pps. in the euro area. At -15.8 (EU) ...
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- Posted: Feb 21, 2024 9:06am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,769
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