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ISM services rebound, but continue to track weaker than official US data
The ISM services index has bounced back nicely in January with the headline index at 53.4 versus 50.5 in December. The consensus was 52.0 with anything above 50 equating to expansion and anything below 50 being a contraction. The most interesting aspect is the employment component. Remember that last month it plunged to 43.8, indicating a deep contraction in hiring, which completely contradicted the strength in non-farm payrolls that was initially reported as a 216k increase that was then revised higher last Friday to 333k. The ISM employment index has now rebounded to 50.5, but this is only indicating very modest ... (full story)
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post: BOE'S PILL: UK ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE WEAK. post: BoE’s Pill: Economic Activity Has Been Quite Weak - Supply Side Constrains Limit UK GDP Growth - Supply Side Might ‘Improve A Little Bit’ - Pick Up In GDP Isn’t Going To Be Dramatic post: MORE BOE'S PILL: VACANCIES, WAGE GROWTH HAVE FALLEN 'A LITTLE', SERVICES PRICE INFLATION HAS BEGUN TO STABILISE, MAY BE SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF FALLING #bankofengland #monetarypolicy #huwpill #ukeconomy #inflation post: - Inflation Drop Is ‘Good News’ For UK Economy - Expect To Fall ‘Close To Or Even Below Target’ - Rates Rates Would Be Restrictive Even After Cuts - Rates Will Gall As We See Progress On Inflation post: BOE'S PILL: I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT IN INFLATION TO REDUCE RATES.
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The GBP/USD tumbles in the mid-North American session trade with losses of 0.74% and exchanges hands at 1.2535. Factors like last Friday's US economic data and over-the-weekend ...
The January 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the fourth quarter of 2023. Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents, on balance, reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the fourth quarter. Furthermore, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. For loans to households, banks, on balance, reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government residential mortgages and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible residential mortgages, for which standards remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, for credit card, auto, and other consumer loans, standards reportedly tightened, and demand weakened on balance. While banks, on balance, reported having tightened lending standards further for most loan categories in the fourth quarter, lower net shares of banks reported tightening lending standards than in the third quarter across all loan categories. The January SLOOS also included a set of special questions inquiring about banks’ expectations for changes in lending standards, borrower demand, and loan performance over 2024. Banks, on balance, reported expecting lending standards to remain basically unchanged for C&I and RRE loans, but to tighten further for CRE, credit card, and auto loans. In addition, banks reported expecting loan demand to strengthen across all loan categories, and loan quality to deteriorate across most loan types. Lending to Businesses (Table 1, questions 1–12; table 2, questions 1–8) Questions on commercial and i post: FEDERAL RESERVE SURVEY INDICATES BANKS ANTICIPATE STRONGER LOAN DEMAND BUT EXPECT A DECLINE IN LOAN QUALITY
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic gives the opening remarks at the Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market Conference on February 5. Bostic says that "an economy that works for everyone," the Atlanta Fed's tagline, is one that features a labor market in which everyone can maximize their human capital and potential and find work commensurate with that potential. Bostic believes that refining our understanding of maximum employment matters in part because, unlike the price stability part of the Fed's dual mandate, maximum employment evolves with changing economic circumstances. Bostic says he and his staff have identified nearly a dozen potentially structural changes to labor markets associated with the pandemic. For one, he notes, he and his staff see signs suggesting that the work-from-home phenomenon is here to stay, though the amenity benefits of the shift to work-from-home could be unevenly distributed across industries, occupations, locations, and demographic groups. Also, he says, lower-wage workers generally enjoyed the biggest proportional pay increases. But that gap in pay hikes has largely closed as a strong labor market has boosted labor force participation to a surprising degree and settled wage growth back into more normal patterns. Bostic emphasizes that while it's dangerous to proclaim with certainty that any pandemic-era phenomenon will shape future labor markets, these are potentially significant developments that will be important considerations as the Federal Reserve pursues a monetary policy path seeking to achieve both of our mandates. Thank you for joining us for this important conference. I'm absolutely thrilled that the Atlanta Fed is one of the six regional Reserve Banks that have joined with the Board of Governors to bring you this exploration of persistent disparities in labor market outcomes along with the latest thinking on how we can remedy those disparities. At the Atlanta Fed, our taglin Opening Remarks at the Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market Conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMIoiuNJoLk post: ATL FED'S BOSTIC: RECENT JOB GAINS CONCENTRATED IN HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, ACCOUNTING FOR 60% OF PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH PAST SEVERAL MOS #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy
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- Posted: Feb 5, 2024 12:53pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,614
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