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US Retail Sales Rise By Most in Three Months to Cap Holidays
US retail sales rose at the strongest pace in three months in December, capping a solid holiday season that suggests consumer resilience heading into the new year. The value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% in a broad-based advance, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%. Nine of 13 categories posted increases, with the biggest gains in clothing, general merchandise stores — which include department stores — and e-commerce. Motor-vehicle sales were up 1.1%, matching the biggest increase since May, while those at gas stations fell for a third month ... (full story)
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A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceeding expectations in three Districts, including in New York, which noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods. In addition, seasonal demand lifted airfreight volume from ecommerce in Richmond and credit card lending in Philadelphia. Several Districts noted increased leisure travel, and a tourism contact described New York City as bustling. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Districts continued to note that high interest rates were limiting auto sales and real estate deals; however, the prospect of falling interest rates was cited by numerous contacts in various sectors as a source of optimism. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty. Overall, most Districts indicated that expectations of their firms for future growth were positive, had improved, or both. Labor Markets Seven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while the pace of job growth was described as modest to moderate in four Districts. Two Districts continued to note a tight labor market, and several described hiring challenges for firms seeking specialty skills, such as auto mechanics or experienced engineers in the Boston and San Francisco Districts, respectively. However, nearly all Districts cited one or more signs of a cooling labor market, such as larger applicant pools, lower turnover rates, more selective hiring by firms, and easing wage pressures. The pace of wage growth was characterized as moderate in Boston, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas; as modest in New York and Philadelphia; and as slight in St. Louis. Firms from many Districts expected wage pressures to ease and wage growth to fall further over the next year. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: MAJORITY OF THE TWELVE FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS REPORTED LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SINCE THE PRIOR BEIGE BOOK PERIOD post: FED BEIGE BOOK: 7 DISTRICTS SAW LITTLE OR NO NET CHANGE IN OVERALL EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, 2 DESCRIBED A TIGHT LABOR MARKET. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: 6 DISTRICTS NOTED SLIGHT OR MODEST PRICE INCREASES. 2 NOTED MODERATE INCREASES. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: CONCERNS ABOUT THE OFFICE MARKET, WEAKENING OVERALL DEMAND, AND 2024 POLITICAL CYCLE WERE OFTEN CITED AS SOURCES OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY.
post: ECB'S NAGEL: GERMAN OUTLOOK FOR 2024 APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER. post: ECB'S NAGEL: I EXPECT MORE FROM GERMANY, WE HAVE A LOT OF STRUCTURAL ISSUES. post: ECB'S NAGEL: THE ECB HAS ACHIEVED A LOT ON INFLATION.
WSJ’s Dion Rabouin digs into predictions from firms like Deutsche Bank, Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo to explain what they see on the horizon.
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- Posted: Jan 17, 2024 1:36pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,791
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