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Friday Speedrun: December 15, 2023
A few weeks ago, we talked in here about how Waller was signaling rate cuts in Q1 of 2024. The market leaned into it but having been burned so many times by rate cut bets that got slowly sucked out by strong data, we bounced. chart You can see we reprice on a particular event and then grind tighter as people unwind bets or get bored. Then the next event hits and we do it again. The FOMC release was more dovish than almost any expectation as the Fed’s dot plot now reflects three cuts for 2024, compared to 1 or 2 expected by the market going in. If you don’t know what the dot plot is, here’s a well-written ... (full story)