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ECB Rate-Cut Pushback to Hinge on New Forecasts
After ramping up borrowing costs for more than a year, all eyes will now be on how forcefully the European Central Bank pushes back against bets on interest-rate cuts. The extent of its resistance will hinge on fresh projections for the euro-zone economy — arriving on the heels of a surprisingly steep slump in inflation. That outlook may also help the ECB decide whether to hasten its exit from quantitative easing by phasing out reinvestments under the €1.7 trillion ($1.8 trillion) pandemic-era PEPP initiative. Economists polled by Bloomberg all see the deposit rate being left at 4% on Thursday. But with price ... (full story)
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Scholars and entrepreneurs said the latest Central Economic Work Conference has sent a strong positive signal to the Chinese economy in 2024, heralding a number of policies aimed ...
Ladies and gentlemen As Chairman of the Governing Board, it is my pleasure to welcome you to the news conference of the Swiss National Bank. I would also like to welcome all those who are joining us today online. After our introductory remarks, we will take questions from journalists as usual. Questions can also be asked by telephone. Monetary policy decision I will begin with our monetary policy decision. We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB are remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold, and at 1.25% above this threshold. We are also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. Inflationary pressure has decreased slightly over the past quarter. However, uncertainty remains high. We will therefore continue to monitor the development of inflation closely. We will adjust our monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. Inflation forecast Allow me to address the development of inflation. Inflation stood at 1.4% in November, and was thus somewhat lower than in the previous months. The slight decrease was above all attributable to lower inflation on goods and tourism services. However, inflation is likely to increase again somewhat in the coming months due to higher electricity prices and rents, as well as the rise in VAT. Our new condition post: SNB'S CHAIRMAN JORDAN: THE SNB IS NO LONGER FOCUSING ON FOREIGN CURRENCY SALES. post: SNB'S CHAIRMAN JORDAN: INFLATIONARY PRESSURE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. post: SNB'S CHAIRMAN JORDAN: THE ASSESSMENT OF UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR INFLATION ARE CURRENTLY BALANCED. post: SNB'S CHAIRMAN JORDAN: ANY THREAT OF A DOWNWARD SPIRAL WITHIN THE CASH SYSTEM SHOULD BE COUNTERED AT AN EARLY STAGE.
The Swiss National Bank is leaving the SNB policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB are remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold, ...
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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 13 December 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%. Three members preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 5.5%. In the MPC’s November Monetary Policy Report projections, conditioned on a market-implied path for Bank Rate that remained around 5¼% until 2024 Q3 and then declined gradually to 4¼% by the end of 2026, GDP was expected to be broadly flat in the first half of the forecast period, in part reflecting relatively weak potential supply, and an increasing degree of economic slack was expected to emerge from the start of next year. In the most likely, or modal, projection, CPI inflation returned to the 2% target by the end of 2025 and fell below the target thereafter. The Committee continued to judge that the risks to its modal inflation projection were skewed to the upside, such that the mean projection for CPI inflation was 2.2% and 1.9% at the two and three-year horizons. Since the MPC’s previous meeting, advanced-economy government bond yields have fallen materially, including at shorter horizons, and risky asset prices have risen. Global GDP growth has been a little stronger than projected in the November Report. Consumer price inflation in the euro area and the United States has declined more quickly than expected. There remain upside risks to inflation given events in the Middle East, although oil and wholesale gas futures prices have fallen. UK GDP was flat in 2023 Q3, in line with the November Report projection, and fell by 0.3% in October. Based on the latest official and survey data, Bank staff expect GDP growth to be broadly flat in Q4 and over coming quarters. The Committee continues to consider a wide range of data on developments in labour market activity. Employment gr post: BoE's Bailey: `Still Some Way To Go' In Inflation Fight
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- Posted: Dec 14, 2023 5:20am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 3,654
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