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Times of change: A new government and prospects for lower rates
The RBNZ will almost certainly leave the OCR unchanged this week. But the key interest is in what they have to say about the outlook and whether market expectations of rate cuts in 2024 will be validated. We expect they will be keen to push back on rate cut expectations as there is likely a lot of water to go under the bridge before those become a reality. A new government has been formed with the final coalition agreement delivering a policy package that is just a touch more contractionary than National campaigned on. Market expectations for interest rates have swung around wildly in recent months. Two months ago, ... (full story)