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Preview of RBNZ November 2023 Monetary Policy Statement
We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its November policy meeting. There will be more interest in the profile for interest rates in 2024 given recent market speculation of a pivot towards OCR cuts in 2024. We think the RBNZ will show a slightly flatter OCR profile that will still convey an on-hold stance through 2024. We anticipate that recent progress on tradables inflation will be acknowledged and incorporated into the RBNZ’s short term inflation forecasts. But we also see the RBNZ continuing to emphasise the medium-term risks to inflation given that the level of inflation remains high and ... (full story)