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Seeing Both Sides of the U.S. Economy
People have a hard time accepting competing ideas at the same time. Humans are averse to discomfort so when that happens our brains work really hard to reduce that feeling. Cognitive dissonance makes it difficult to see both sides of an argument. Everything is either good or bad with no middle ground. And so it is with the economy. Some people think the current economic environment stinks. Other think people are overlooking the positives underlying the data. As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. To avoid my own cognitive dissonance, let’s look at both the good and the bad in the U.S. economy ... (full story)
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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. Mortgage balances rose by $126 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.14 trillion at the end of September. Credit card balances increased by $48 billion to $1.08 trillion in Q3 2023, representing a 4.7% quarterly increase. Auto loan balances rose by $13 billion, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011, and now stand at $1.6 trillion. Student loan balances increased by $30 billion and now stand at $1.6 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by $2 billion. Mortgage originations modestly declined to $386 billion in Q3 2023 and are well below the robust quarterly origination volumes observed between 2020 and 2021. The volume of newly originated auto loans, which includes leases, slightly increased and now stands at $179.3 billion. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $113 billion, a 2.46% increase from the previous quarter. Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q3 2023, with 3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of September. Delinquency transition rates increased for most debt types except student loans and home equity lines of credit. The increases in credit card delinquency were the sharpest among borrower post: NY FED: TOTAL US HOUSEHOLD DEBT CLIMBS 1.3% TO $17.29 TRILLION IN THIRD QUARTER NY FED: TOTAL MORTGAGE BALANCES CLIMB $126B TO $12.14 TRILLION IN THIRD QUARTER post: NY FED: THIRD-QUARTER AGGREGATE DELINQUENCY RATES CLIMB BY 3% NY FED: CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATE CLIMB ELEVATED AMONG YOUNGER AMERICANS post: NY FED: THIRD-QUARTER AUTO LOANS UP BY $13B TO $1.6 TRILLION NY FED: THIRD-QUARTER MORTGAGE ORIGINATION LEVELS EBB TO $386B
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- Posted: Nov 7, 2023 12:39pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,299