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Can China Catch Up with Greece?
China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even given generous assumptions ... (full story)
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post: FED'S BARR: THE FED ARE DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS FOR THE 2024 STRESS TESTS FOR LARGE BANKS.Multiple Scenarios in Stress Testing Thank you for the opportunity to speak today. I'm here to offer my thoughts on the next steps for stress testing, and in particular why using multiple exploratory scenarios will help improve our understanding of risk in the banking system.1 The stress test as we know it today grew out of the 2009 Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, or SCAP, conducted in the heat of the global financial crisis. In the winter of 2008–09, markets had lost confidence in banks amid wide uncertainty about the future path of the economy and the losses banks could face. This prompted the Federal Reserve and Treasury to conduct a stress test to determine the health of the 19 largest banks under a severely adverse economic scenario and to publish the findings. The release of the results provided transparency about the status of the largest banks, made it easier for firms to re-capitalize themselves, and restarted the provision of credit to the economy that began the process of recovery. Following the success of this stress test, Congress mandated in the Dodd-Frank Act that the Federal Reserve conduct an annual stress test of large banks to determine whether those banks have sufficient capital to absorb losses under adverse economic conditions.2 And today this test—as well as the data collection that supports it—is one of our primary tools to assess and to help ensure banks' resilience, in good times and bad. During periods of economic or financial uncertainty, stress tests can provide critical assessments of bank resilience to supervisors, the market, and policymakers. This transparency helps enable markets to function better in times of stress.3 Outside of stressful periods, stress tests can help to assess sufficient capitalization and improve supervisory insight into risks. The stress test also can provide transparency into the build-up of risks across banks. In our experience, the test results have given supervisors valuable information to provide feedback to individual firms and helped the Board assess the stability of the financial system. A recent study confirms this experience, finding that banks subject to the stress test were less exposed to common systemic risks.4 In addition, the stress test helps to make capital requirements less susceptible to gaming by firms and therefore more likely to be set at adequate levels.5 This is so because the design of the scenario can change based on our observations of growing risks in the system. Th
post: FED'S GOOLSBEE: I HAVEN'T SEEN A RECESSION, HOPEFUL WE CAN AVOID IT. post: FED'S GOOLSBEE: THE US LABOR MARKET HAS EASED BUT IS STILL STRONG. post: FED'S GOOLSBEE: HOUSING-SHELTER COMPONENT OF INFLATION IS A KEY MEASURE.
post: *DRONES ATTACK US MILITARY BASE IN SOUTHERN SYRIA: APDrones attack a US military base in southern Syria and there are minor injuries, US officials say A military base in southern Syria where U.S. troops have maintained a presence to train forces as part of a broad campaign against the Islamic State group was attacked by drones on Thursday, two U.S. officials told The Associated Press. One drone was shot down, but another caused in minor injuries, said one of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter before an official announcement about the incident. The attacks follow similar drone strikes over the past few days against U.S. and coalition bases in Iraq amid simmering anger in the region after an explosion at a Gaza hospital killed hundreds of people. The al-Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria is located at a sensitive juncture often used by Iranian-backed militants to ferry weapons to Hezbollah.
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Treasury yields surged anew on Thursday, lifting the benchmark 10-year to a fresh 16-year high at almost 5%, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said signs of above-trend ...
post: PENTAGON: CONFIRMS THAT A US WARSHIP SHOT DOWN THREE MISSILES AND DRONES IN THE NORTHERN RED SEA. post: PENTAGON: WE CANNOT SAY FOR CERTAIN WHERE MISSILES WERE TARGETING, BUT POTENTIALLY TOWARDS TARGETS IN ISRAEL. post: PENTAGON: WE WILL TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT TROOPS, AFTER ATTACKS ON U.S. PERSONNEL IN IRAQ AND SYRIA
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- Posted: Oct 19, 2023 1:40pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,547