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New Look at Global Banks Highlights Risks From Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates
Central banks could keep interest rates higher for longer as they fight to curb inflation that remains stubbornly high in many countries—and slow their economies by doing so. Such an environment hasn’t confronted the world’s financial markets in a generation. That means financial supervisors must sharpen their analytical tools and regulatory responses to address emerging threats. And the new risks gathering in the banking system and beyond mean it’s time to redouble efforts to identify the weakest lenders. Accordingly, we enhanced our stress-testing tools to focus on risks from rising interest rates and ... (full story)
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Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by observing that high inflation remained the key challenge facing central banks around the world. While core inflation had gradually moderated in most advanced economies in year-ended terms, monthly observations had edged higher in the United States and Canada. The persistence in core inflation had been driven by core services prices; core goods price inflation had moderated, and prices had declined in the United States and the United Kingdom over preceding months. Rising energy prices had seen headline inflation pick up in a number of countries over the prior couple of months, including in Australia. Members discussed the recent increase in oil prices, which were almost 30 per cent higher than at the end of June. The increase had occurred mainly in response to the decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to extend supply cuts to the end of the year. Refined fuel prices had risen even more, owing to an increase in refinery margins following production disruptions in some markets. Members noted that output growth in advanced economies had slowed in response to contractionary monetary policy settings and cost-of-living pressures. Conditions in the manufacturing sector remained weak. While conditions in the services sector had been more positive for much of the year, they had eased in some advanced economies over prior months. By contrast, the US economy had shown considerable resilience, including in household consumption. Across advanced economies, slower output growth had been reflected in a gradual easing of tight labour market conditions. Unemployment rates had edged up but remained low, and job vacancies remained at high levels. In China, the most recent indicators of economic activity had been somewhat more positive than in prior months. Members observed that the property market remained the key exception; real estate investment, new housing starts and housing prices had all declined further over the preceding month. In response, Chinese authorities had implemented further modest policy stimulus measures targeted at the property and household sectors as well as infrastructure investment. A material slowdown in the Chinese economy remained a key risk to the global outlook. Despite the weakness in the property sector, Chinese steel demand had been resilient owing post: <AUD=>:*RBA CONSIDERED HIKE OR HOLD, DECIDED PAUSE CASE WAS STRONGER *RBA: A$ MOVES IN RECENT MONTHS EASE MONET. CONDITIONS AT MARGIN *RBA: PRIOR TO NOV. MEETING WILL HAVE JOBS, CPI, STAFF FORECASTS *RBA: CHALLENGES IN CHINESE ECONOMY COULD SLOW AUSTRALIA GROWTH post: RBA: MEMBERS ACKNOWLEDGED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION WERE A "SIGNIFICANT CONCERN"
China’s economic growth last quarter probably undershot Beijing’s annual target for 2023 as the property sector and subdued demand weighed on activity, a sign of the recovery’s ...
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- Posted: Oct 16, 2023 7:02pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,252