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Is the Chinese economy headed for Japan-style lost decades?
China’s economic recovery coming out of the zero-COVID policies at the beginning of this year has stalled. The economy only grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.8 per cent (quarter on quarter) in the second quarter, slower than many of the quarters when China was in COVID-induced lockdown. The World Bank last week cut its forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2024 to 4.4 per cent, down from its earlier prediction of 4.8 per cent. That’s still a respectable growth rate for an economy the size of China’s, but will be the economy’s slowest growth rate since the 1960s. The Chinese economy’s long COVID is ... (full story)