Back in July, we called for the US 10yr yield to break back above 4%. Since then, we’ve commented on the bear market that is US bonds and in the past month, we’ve been calling for the US 10yr to hit 4.5%. And here we are, a rising rates environment that is there for good reason - effectively as nothing has broken yet. So, what next? We argue that the discount for the funds rate in 2025 sets a floor for market rates today An important starting point is to understand why we are where we are. The basic answer is macro resilience. Importantly, the labour market has refused to go into recession. If we don’t have material ... (full story)