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Here’s why 5% for the US 10yr can happen
Back in July, we called for the US 10yr yield to break back above 4%. Since then, we’ve commented on the bear market that is US bonds and in the past month, we’ve been calling for the US 10yr to hit 4.5%. And here we are, a rising rates environment that is there for good reason - effectively as nothing has broken yet. So, what next? We argue that the discount for the funds rate in 2025 sets a floor for market rates today An important starting point is to understand why we are where we are. The basic answer is macro resilience. Importantly, the labour market has refused to go into recession. If we don’t have ... (full story)
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- From xm.com|Sep 22, 2023
video The latest spike in oil prices is causing some headaches for policymakers as energy costs are on the rise again just as they’ve started to see the result of their ...
- From cnbc.com|Sep 22, 2023
Major automakers are calling into question the United Auto Workers’ motives in launching targeted strikes in light of leaked messages by a union director calling to “keep them ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Sep 22, 2023
Thank you for the invitation to join you today, and congratulations on 50 years of working together to better serve the people of Colorado. As a former community banker, it is always great to be with community bankers and to recognize the importance of your work to strengthen economic opportunities for your communities and your customers. I look forward to hearing more about the issues affecting your institutions and your customers, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's regulation and supervision. Before we turn to our conversation, I'd like to offer a few thoughts on the economy and monetary policy, since the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met earlier this week. As you know, at that meeting, my colleagues and I voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, after raising rates sharply over the past year and a half to reduce inflation. During that time, we have seen considerable progress on lowering inflation, warranting a more gradual pace of increases this year and supporting the decision this week to hold rates steady. However, inflation is still too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way. Most recently, the latest inflation reading based on the consumer price index showed that overall inflation rose, responding in part to higher oil prices. I see a continued risk that energy prices could rise further and reverse some of the progress we have seen on inflation in recent months. At the same time, the economy has remained st tweet: <=USD>:
*BOWMAN: MORE RATE HIKES LIKELY NEEDED TO GET INFLATION TO 2%
?*BOWMAN SEES RISK ENERGY PRICES RISE MORE, HURTING INF PROGRESS
*BOWMAN:LIKELY APPROPRIATE FOMC HIKES RATE IF INFLATION TOO HIGH tweet: FED'S BOWMAN: WE NEED TO REPEAT MONETARY POLICY ISN'T ON PRESET COURSE. tweet: Nevertheless, Bowman allows that she supported the decision to hold rates steady this week because "we have seen considerable progress on lowering inflation."
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- From corporate.nordea.com|Sep 22, 2023
While some central banks are still hiking rates and others are not, most are probably at least near peak rates. Market pricing has moved clearly also longer out, and rates are ...
- From @sevenloI|Sep 22, 2023|1 comment
tweet: Fed’s Daly: Holding Rates This Week Doesn’t Predict What We Will Do Next Fed’s Daly: We’re Holding Rates Steady to Collect Information to See if More is Necessary tweet:
FED'S DALY: WE NEED TO GO AT A SLOWER PACE. tweet:
FED'S DALY: I'M NOT READY TO DECLARE VICTORY. tweet:
FED'S DALY: WE WILL NOT BE SATISFIED UNTIL WE'RE CONFIDENT INFLATION IS ON A PATH BACK TO STABILITY. tweet:
FED'S DALY: THE US ECONOMY HAS A LOT OF MOMENTUM.
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Sep 22, 2023
The UK economy is heading for a rocky final quarter of 2023 after a string of indicators this week prompted the Bank of England to halt its quickest monetary tightening in three ...
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- Posted: Sep 22, 2023 12:09pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,784