Here’s why 5% for the US 10yr can happen

Thank you for the invitation to join you today, and congratulations on 50 years of working together to better serve the people of Colorado. As a former community banker, it is always great to be with community bankers and to recognize the importance of your work to strengthen economic opportunities for your communities and your customers. I look forward to hearing more about the issues affecting your institutions and your customers, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's regulation and supervision. Before we turn to our conversation, I'd like to offer a few thoughts on the economy and monetary policy, since the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met earlier this week. As you know, at that meeting, my colleagues and I voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, after raising rates sharply over the past year and a half to reduce inflation. During that time, we have seen considerable progress on lowering inflation, warranting a more gradual pace of increases this year and supporting the decision this week to hold rates steady. However, inflation is still too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way. Most recently, the latest inflation reading based on the consumer price index showed that overall inflation rose, responding in part to higher oil prices. I see a continued risk that energy prices could rise further and reverse some of the progress we have seen on inflation in recent months. At the same time, the economy has remained st tweet: <=USD>:*BOWMAN: MORE RATE HIKES LIKELY NEEDED TO GET INFLATION TO 2% ?*BOWMAN SEES RISK ENERGY PRICES RISE MORE, HURTING INF PROGRESS *BOWMAN:LIKELY APPROPRIATE FOMC HIKES RATE IF INFLATION TOO HIGH tweet: FED'S BOWMAN: WE NEED TO REPEAT MONETARY POLICY ISN'T ON PRESET COURSE. tweet: Nevertheless, Bowman allows that she supported the decision to hold rates steady this week because "we have seen considerable progress on lowering inflation."

tweet: Fed’s Daly: Holding Rates This Week Doesn’t Predict What We Will Do Next Fed’s Daly: We’re Holding Rates Steady to Collect Information to See if More is Necessary tweet: FED'S DALY: WE NEED TO GO AT A SLOWER PACE. tweet: FED'S DALY: I'M NOT READY TO DECLARE VICTORY. tweet: FED'S DALY: WE WILL NOT BE SATISFIED UNTIL WE'RE CONFIDENT INFLATION IS ON A PATH BACK TO STABILITY. tweet: FED'S DALY: THE US ECONOMY HAS A LOT OF MOMENTUM.