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UMich Inflation Expectations Jumped In August, Sentiment Slipped
The final print for August's University of Michigan sentiment survey was expected to confirm the preliminary data's rise in confidence driven by a decline in inflation expectations. However, instead the final print saw inflation expectations increasing intra-month and sentiment declining. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up from 3.4% last month to 3.5% this month (up signifcantly from the 3.3% preliminary print). Long-run inflation expectations came in at 3.0% for the third consecutive month, but up from the 2.9% preliminary print. After rising sharply for the past several months, the final print for August's ... (full story)
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post: Fed’s Powell: We’re Prepared to Raise Rates Further if Appropriate Fed’s Powell: We Intend to Hold Rates at Restrictive Level Until Confident Inflation’s Moving Sustainably Down to 2% post: Fed’s Powell: Fed Will Proceed ‘Carefully’ When Deciding to Hike Again or Hold Steady Fed’s Powell: Economic Uncertainty Calls for ‘Agile’ MonPol Making Fed’s Powell: Fed Will Decide Next Rate Moves Based on Data post: Fed’s Powell: Two Months of Good Data Are Only the Beginning of What We Need to Build Confidence on Inflation Path Fed’s Powell: Policy Restrictive, but Fed Can’t Be Certain What Neutral Rate Level Is Fed’s Powell: Signs Job Market Not Cooling Could Also Warrant More Fed ActionPowell: Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead Good morning. At last year's Jackson Hole symposium, I delivered a brief, direct message. My remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same: It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective. Today I will review our progress so far and discuss the outlook and the uncertainties we face as we pursue our dual mandate goals. I will conclude with a summary of what this means for policy. Given how far we have come, at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks. The Decline in Inflation So Far The ongoing episode of high inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate in March 2022, it was clear that bringing down inflation would depend on both the unwinding of the unprecedented pandemic-related demand and supply distortions and on our tightening of monetary policy, which would slow the growth of aggregate demand, allowing supply time to catch up. While these two forces are now working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go, even with the more favorable recent readings. On a 12-month basis, U.S. total, or "headline," PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and decl
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- Posted: Aug 25, 2023 10:08am
- Submitted by:Category: Medium Impact Breaking NewsComments: 0 / Views: 4,066
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