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NZ: OCR on hold, but here's why interest rates could still move
The official cash rate is expected to remain on hold for some time, but that doesn’t mean that retail interest rates will remain completely static. The Reserve Bank will update the rate on Wednesday but is expected to leave it at 5.5%. The bank says that is the peak that it expects the rate to reach. Some other economists still expect another increase is likely, but not until the end of the year. But other factors affect the retail rate that borrowers, such as those with home loans, pay. One of those is what other central banks around the world are doing. Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said this would have ... (full story)
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post: RBNZ: OCR To Need To Remain Restrictive For Foreseeable Future - Confident Restrictive Rates Will Return CPI To Target - Economy Evolving Broadly As Anticipated - Still Risk Inflation Doesn't Slow As Much As Expected - Measures Of Core Inflation Remain `Too High' post: RBNZ Forecasts Now Show Small Chance Of Another Rate Hike And Show A Recession Starting In Q3 2023RBNZ Minutes: Committee agreed that the OCR needs to stay at restrictive levels for the foreseeable future The current level of interest rates is constraining spending and hence inflation pressure, as anticipated and required. • Committee agreed that the OCR needs to stay at restrictive levels for the foreseeable future. • New Zealand economy is evolving broadly as anticipated. • Headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined, but measures of core inflation remain too high. • In the near term, there is a risk that activity and inflation measures do not slow as much as expected. • Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1 to 3% per annum. • Official cash rate at 5.54% in December 2023 (pvs 5.5%). • RBNZ sees official cash rate at 5.57% in September 2024 (pvs 5.43%).Official Cash Rate remains at 5.5%: The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%. The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5%. The current level of interest rates is constraining spending and hence inflation pressure, as anticipated and required. The Committee agreed that the OCR needs to stay at restrictive levels for the foreseeable future to ensure annual consumer price inflation returns to the 1 to 3% target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment. The New Zealand economy is evolving broadly as anticipated. Activity continues to slow in parts of the economy that are more sensitive to interest rates. Labour shortages are easing as overall demand softens and immigration adds to labour resources. Headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined, but measures of core inflation remain too high. Globally, economic growth remains below trend and headline inflation has eased for most of our trading partners. Core inflation remains high in many countries. Weakening global economic growth is putting downward pressure on New Zealand export prices. The imbalance between demand and supply is moderating in the New Zealand economy. However, a prolonged period of subdued spending growth is still required to better match the supply capacity of the economy and reduce inflation pressure.
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- Posted: Aug 15, 2023 9:38pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 3,401
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