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US Inflation in July: Central Tendency Down
Headline and core y/y CPI inflation undershoots slightly Bloomberg consensus (by 0.1%) (and below Cleveland Fed nowcast for headline of 0.4% m/m, see yesterday’s post). Overall, trend is down even if headline y/y is ticks up slightly. chart Figure 1: Annualized CPI inflation, year-on-year (bold black), quarter-on-quarter (tan), month-on-month (green), and instantaneous per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4 (bold red). Source: BLS, and author’s calculations. As discussed in Justin Ho’s Marketplace piece yesterday, the year-on-year calculation doesn’t show everything. In particular, q/q and m/m are down, as is the ... (full story)