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FOMC scorecard: Dotplot-dependent 1, data-dependent 0
The question many economists, as well as market participants, asked themselves after the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was why the Federal Reserve (Fed) paused its federal funds rate hike campaign if they were going to increase it again in July anyway. What did waiting for 5 weeks to resume hikes mean for monetary policy? We thought, naively, that it was because the Fed, as it has argued so many times, was data-dependent and was willing to wait some more time to see how the lagging effects of monetary policy were affecting the economy. This brings us to an anecdote from a personal experience of ... (full story)