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Mixed US activity picture supports July hike then another pause
Retail sales grew in June but these are dollar values and in volume terms, spending appears lacklustre. Meanwhile, with the manufacturing sector languishing and inflation showing encouraging signs of slowing, the widely-anticipated July Federal Reserve interest rate hike may be the last. Retail sales indicate a mixed spending picture: US June retail sales are a little bit softer than expected at the headline level, rising 0.2% month-on-month versus the 0.5% consensus expectation, but May's figure was revised up to 0.5% MoM growth from 0.3%. Meanwhile, the "control group" which strips out the volatile auto, building ... (full story)