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Calm Start to the Week, with Little Impact from Russia's Drama
The drama in Russia captured the imaginations but failed to have much impact on the capital markets. Conventional wisdom sees it as a sign of Putin's weakness, but he has been underestimated, including by many Ukrainians who did not think Russia was going to invade despite America's repeated warnings. It may take some time for the implications for the two main protagonists, Wagner head Prigozhin and Defense Minister Shoigu. The war in Ukraine is likely unaffected, and Kyiv's counter-offense thus far seems rather muted. The risk is that the war escalates if Kyiv resorts to medium- and long-range missiles to hit ... (full story)