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The federal funds rate: Back to the drawing board
We have been saying, for many months now, that the more markets try to second guess the Federal Reserve (Fed) and push longer-term interest rates down, the higher would be the probability that the Fed would continue to increase the federal funds rate. What happened with the release of the Survey of Economic Projections (SEP) was just that. Since the Fed has not been able to convince markets that longer-term interest rates need to be higher – and for longer – the only recourse the Fed has is to increase the only interest rate it controls, the federal funds rate, in order to push longer-term interest rates higher. ... (full story)
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Nearly two-thirds of Canadians say higher borrowing costs are squeezing their pocketbooks, a result that’s at odds with a recent rebound in household consumption. Some 64% of ...
Global economic growth turned out stronger in 2022 than expected in the Fall. The IMF lifted its estimate of global growth during 2022 from 1.7% as of October 2022 to 2.0% in April 2023 (measured on a Q4/Q4 basis). Prices of commodities like food and energy have stabilized, supply chain pressures continued to ease, and China’s reopening should provide a boost to global growth. Nevertheless, Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to weigh on the outlook and has increased energy and food insecurity. Looking forward, the IMF projects global growth to increase in 2023, to 2.9% before increasing to 3.1% in 2024. The global economic outlook continues to face elevated uncertainty as Russia’s war enters its second year, core inflation remains high, and financial market stresses emerged. Global current account imbalances remained elevated in 2022 relative to pre-pandemic levels, as trade and tourism patterns remained disrupted. Rising commodity prices tended to strengthen the current accounts of commodity exporting countries and weaken those of commodity importers. Among major U.S. trading partners, the very large surpluses of Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Singapore have each remained significant as a share of GDP over the four quarters through December 2022. China’s surplus was higher in dollar terms at $402 billion over four quarters through December 2022 (2.2% of GDP), roughly $49 billion higher than in the four quarters through December 2021. Meanwhile, the U.S. current account deficit rose modestly to 3.7% of GDP in the four quarters through December 2022, up from 3.6% of GDP in the four quarters through December 2021. Differing growth and inflation outlooks have led to a range of monetary policy actions across countries, and fundamentals including interest rate differentials, terms of trade shocks, and growth expectations have had large impacts on currencies. In 20 post at 2:00pm: *US Keeps China on FX Watchlist, Not Designated as Manipulator *US Drops Japan From Currency Watchlist *US Concern on Switzerland FX Eases but It Remains on Watchlist *US Treasury Refrains From Designating Any Currency Manipulators post at 2:01pm: US TREASURY: CHINA'S FAILURE TO PUBLISH IT'S FOREX INTERVENTION MAKE IT AN OUTLIER AMONG MAJOR ECONOMIES AND WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING.
EUR/USD rally stalled in the aftermath of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike, trimming some of its previous day’s gains amidst mixed market sentiment. Following the Federal ...
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- Posted: Jun 16, 2023 3:01pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,039
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