Every housing cycle is different. One of the key themes in this cycle is that existing home inventory is historically extremely low as many homeowners are “locked in” to their current home with low mortgage rates. Another key theme is that there will be few distressed sales as most homeowners have substantial equity. Here is some data on outstanding mortgage rates and current loan-to-values. Here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2022. {chart} ... (full story)