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How the debt-ceiling crisis could play out: four scenarios
The US government has never defaulted on its debt, but it does occasionally have showdowns over whether or not the ceiling will be raised. Tense negotiations last took place in 2011 and 2013; US fiscal agencies estimate that these stand-offs pushed total borrowing costs up by US$19bn and US$38bn respectively. Risks to the economy are even bigger this time, given that the US is on the edge of a slowdown and rising interest rates have already strained the banking system. There is a high degree of uncertainty over how debt-ceiling talks will play out. We outline several scenarios here, in order of likelihood. Core ... (full story)
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post at 9:14am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: ABOUT A THIRD OF RATE INCREASES HAVE HIT THE ECONOMY NOW. post at 9:18am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: WE MUST NOT OVERLY RELY ON MECHANISM OF FORECASTING. post at 9:21am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: THE MAY FORECASTS REFLECT MORE INFLATION PERSISTENCE. post at 9:25am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: THE AGING POPULATION MEANS LOWER UK GROWTH POTENTIAL.
post at 9:08am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: OUR PROJECTIONS SHOW THE GOVERNMENT WILL MEET INFLATION TARGET THIS YEAR. post at 9:08am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: I WILL NOT SPECULATE ON WHERE APRIL INFLATION DATA LEAVES US IN TERMS OF FORECASTS. post at 9:09am: *BOE'S BAILEY: A LOT OF UK INFLATION FROM IMPORTED SHOCKS post at 9:09am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: TODAY'S NUMBERS SHOWED A WELCOME FALL BELOW DOUBLE DIGITS IN INFLATION. post at 9:12am: BOE GOV. BAILEY: I DON'T THINK "SPIRAL" IS THE RIGHT WORD TO USE WHEN ASKED ABOUT CORE INFLATION AND WAGES.
The increase in confidence was seen most strongly in trade in motor vehicles and textiles. The trade sector as a whole reported a sharp upward revision of demand expectations and, ...
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post at 10:14am: YELLEN: HIGHLY LIKELY TO RUN OUT OF SUFFICENT CASH EARLY JUNE post at 10:15am: US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: IT IS HARD TO BE PRECISE ABOUT WHICH DAY RESOURCES WILL RUN OUT. post at 10:19am: YELLEN: WE SIMPLY HAVE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING #News #Markets #DEBT #capitalhungry post at 10:20am: US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: PAYMENT PRIORITIZATION IS NOT OPERATIONALLY FEASIBLE. post at 10:20am: US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I'M SEEING STRESS IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, INCLUDING BILL AUCTIONS.
post at 10:21am: YELLEN: EVEN IN RUN-UP TO POSSIBLE DEFAULT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL MARKET DISTRESS post at 10:24am: YELLEN: MOST IMPORTANT LESSON LEARNED FROM 2011 DEBT CEILING EPISODE IS THAT HOUSEHOLD AND BUSINESSES CAN LOSE CONFIDENCE, IMPAIR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE post at 10:24am: YELLEN: WE ARE COMMITTED TO NOT HAVING MISSED PAYMENTS, NOT INVOLVED IN PLANNING FOR WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS A DEFAULT
post at 10:32am: WTI Oil Jumps 2.3% to $74.57 After Huge Weekly Drop in U.S. Crude InventoriesCrude Inventory Data Shows Surprise Draw of 12.5 Million Barrels U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending May 19, 2023, which was 79 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1,010 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 3.9% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 763,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 156,000 barrels per day. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 12.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 455.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels from last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 18% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased 3.1 million barrels from last week and are 32% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petr
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- Posted: May 24, 2023 9:32am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,882